This is a creative assignment I did on exchange in Uppsala University.
The task was to imagine an aspect of a sustainable economic future
and describe how we would get there from the present.
For added realism, I pretend that I am writing in the year 2053.
Apart from section 2.1 (2007: São Paulo), everything is fiction.
For now.
Introduction
In the three years since the United States implemented its national ban on online advertising in March 2050, the global landscape of enterprises has been in flux. Former tech giant Amazon filed for bankruptcy in February 2053, a historical moment that would have been unimaginable 30 years ago when the company was seen as “too big to fail” (Whitley, 2022). Nonetheless, the disappearance of Amazon, like Walmart (1962-2051) and Alibaba (2015-2048), had a negligible impact on global production and consumption. By the early 2040s, the majority of the world’s population had reverted to purchasing goods exclusively from local markets, rejuvenating businesses that were previously marginalized by the “buy cheap stuff made elsewhere” culture that dominated the 2010s and 2020s (Fraser, 2022, p. 47). Many researchers attribute this monumental transition to the anti-advertising movement, or war on advertising.
Existing literature on the war on advertising comprises longitudinal studies on regional advertising bans and macro-level studies on the international UN advertising bans. However, there are no comprehensive studies on the war from start to end, analysing individual bans not as isolated events but as tethered landmarks of a unified global movement. I contend that such a project is vital as the war on advertising was a rare success of pro-environmental collective action, and it may provide key insights for other mass movements towards global sustainability. The first part of this paper traces the evolution of the war, proposing its specific start and end points in the absence of a consensus. The second part discusses alternative trajectories of the war, offering a deeper analysis of the implications of banning advertisements.
The war on advertising, 2007-2050
2007: São Paulo implements Clean City Law
On 1 January 2007, São Paulo enacted the Clean City Law which banned outdoor advertising (Rapid Transition Alliance, 2019). 15,000 billboards and 300,000 storefront signs were removed from Brazil’s largest city, exposing previously concealed slum-like favelas (Mahdawi, 2015). Increased visibility of the city’s homelessness and gangs gave these social issues higher priority for reform (Rapid Transition Alliance, 2019). Despite resistance from advertising agencies, the Clean City Law received strong public support (Rapid Transition Alliance, 2019), highlighting the power of political determination in prioritizing public interests over consumerist “market forces” associated with the advertising industry. This can be seen as a “vindication of public power” (Fraser, 2022, p. 134). The Clean City Law in São Paulo is proposed as the starting point of the war on advertising, as it inspired similar anti-advertising initiatives in Chennai (2009), Paris (2011), Grenoble (2014), Tehran (2015) and London (2017) (Dewar, 2017; Rapid Transition Alliance, 2019).
2023: Norway proposes global offline advertising phaseout at UN
At the 2023 forum of the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), Norway proposed a global offline advertising phaseout. The law would obligate countries to remove all forms of offline advertising, including billboards, television, and radio advertisements. Norway drew attention to the social benefits of the Clean City Law in São Paulo and similar movements in other cities. It also shared insights from its own bans on alcohol advertising in 1975 (Rossow, 2021) and on television advertising to children since the 1990s (Hawkes, 2004). Finally, it emphasized that offline advertising would be easier to control within national jurisdictions, although online advertising would need to be addressed in the future.
The proposal was rebuked by private sector representatives, who claimed that the advertising industry was the backbone of the global economy. Some argued that advertising was key to the green transition, through “green advertising” of products whose consumption would protect the environment (Hartmann et al., 2023). Ultimately, 179 out of 193 member states rejected the proposal, with the primary concerns that the phaseout might destabilize the global economy and had little connection to the Sustainable Development Goals. Nonetheless, the 2023 ECOSOC forum was a major turning point in the war as it brought international attention to the debate on advertising as a driver of the climate crisis (Simms, 2021; Hartmann et al., 2023).
2024-2030: Guerrilla warfare
Despite its apparent failure at ECOSOC 2023, the proposed offline advertising phaseout captured the attention of numerous pro-environmental actors. Youth-led climate movements such as Fridays for Future, Extinction Rebellion Youth and Sunrise Movement joined the war on advertising and swiftly mobilized to raise awareness on the climate complicity of advertising. In response, the advertising industry launched mass greenwashing campaigns, leveraging its ubiquitous presence on billboards, television and websites. With an expenditure budget surpassing $1 trillion in 2025 (Goetzen, 2021), the industry also exerted its influence over mainstream news outlets, which in turn discredited the claims of youth climate activists (Bergmann and Ossewaarde, 2020; Huttunen and Albrecht, 2021; von Zabern and Tulloch, 2021; Cowan, Dzidic and Newnham, 2023). In the end, these efforts managed to slow but not stop the spread of awareness. By 2030, it was public knowledge that advertising was a key driver of climate change.
Meanwhile, the second-hand clothing industry reached a tipping point in the mid-2020s, surpassing retail clothing in terms of mainstream demand (Pizza, 2022). The rapid uptake of second-hand clothing was mainly driven by its support of circular economies (Persson and Hinton, 2023) and vintage appeal (Cassidy and Bennett, 2012). Consequently, fast fashion retailers such as H&M and Shein entered a death spiral, with less demand and production leading to less advertising, and vice versa. The obsolescence of fashion advertising triggered an unprecedented year-on-year decline in global advertising expenditure in 2028.
2031-2040: Local leadership and the needs-based market
While pro-advertising lobbying and political timidity at the UN continued to block a global advertising phaseout, municipalities worldwide began to act independently in the spirit of São Paulo. The Adfree Cities pressure group, originally established in the UK in 2020 (Bearne, 2022), expanded into an international network spanning 4,516 cities by 2035. There were two main reasons for the exponential growth of municipal bans on offline advertising. First, the bandwagon effect: As more cities became advertisement-free and demonstrated economic and social stability, other cities became more inclined to follow suit. Second, residents of cities inundated with advertisements became increasingly aware of the social advantages enjoyed by those in advertisement-free cities, prompting them to pressure their local governments for change. Solidarity among advertisement-free cities transformed them into an unofficial coalition, wielding substantial political influence. This collective strength ultimately led to the long-awaited approval of the global ban on offline advertising at ECOSOC in 2040.
The phaseout of advertisements necessitated a new market regime that could function without advertising. The well-established degrowth movement, hell-bent on abolishing advertising since the early 21st century (Denis et al., 2010, cited in Schmelzer, Vetter and Vansintjan, 2022, p. 210), was quintessential in developing this regime: the needs-based market. Residents of areas liberated from billboards were no longer exposed to images of designer accessories, vacation packages, and non-fungible token (NFT) art, which they had no prior intention of purchasing. Left with only online advertisements, the discretionary sector shrank by 68% from 2031 to 2040. Another major contributor was the flygskam or “flight shaming” movement which began in Sweden in the late 2010s. When global warming crossed the 1.5 °C threshold in 2031 (Diffenbaugh and Barnes, 2023), public concern about climate change reached an all-time high and drove millions of people past their “personal tipping point” of quitting air travel to reduce carbon emissions (Jacobson et al., 2020).
Resources, labour and investments from discretionary sectors were redirected to the production and distribution of essential goods, resulting in a distilling effect on the global economy which became increasingly needs-based. This was vital to meet essential demand, which was growing quickly in quantity and scope. Air-conditioning units and home energy generators were declared as essential in regions affected by extreme weather. Additionally, this decade saw the emergence of climate migration hotspots; millions of people were forced to leave their homes due to crop failures and sea level rise (Clement et al., 2021). Cities with a high influx of climate migrants transformed into needs-based economies, as original inhabitants and migrants collectively took action to address urgent problems of food, shelter, and psychological trauma (Torres and Casey, 2017).
2041-2050: The final battle against online advertising
Although the UN’s 2040 offline advertising ban eliminated billboards worldwide by 2045, it also had an unexpected rebound effect: Hundreds of billions of dollars were reinvested into online advertising, causing a resurgence of discretionary consumption in industrialized countries. The consumption rebound was also instigated by two other factors. First, the dampening effects of offline advertising bans on consumption were undermined by online advertising, which effectively substituted for offline advertising (Goldfarb and Tucker, 2011). Second, online advertising had evolved since the artificial intelligence revolution of the 2020s (Rodgers, 2021). Atomic-targeted advertisements (ATAs), procedurally generated for individual Internet users based on their personal data collected by tracking companies (Privacy International, 2019), became the standard.
However, the global anti-advertising movement also saw considerable growth as millions of people became disillusioned from consumerism amidst the climate crisis. Two distinct currents within the movement catalysed the eventual demise of online advertising. First, the sub-movement of counter-de-anonymization (CDA), whose agenda was encapsulated by its unusual name. De-anonymization is a data mining technique capable of revealing the identities of individuals by decrypting personal information that was intended to remain anonymous (Frankenfield, 2022). Since the 2000s, it had been widely used by social networks to share users’ information with advertisers (Narayanan and Shmatikov, 2009). In retaliation, counter-de-anonymization sought to expose online advertising agencies, transforming public perception of the online advertising industry from an abstract entity to a tangible group of companies. CDA paved the way for hacktivist collective Anonymous to launch its 2044 campaign of denial-of-service (DoS) attacks, rendering high-traffic websites inaccessible until they removed all advertisements.
The second current was the sub-movement to amend the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) Article 1 to the following (additions italicized):
All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights. They are endowed with reason and conscience, which shall not be subject to manipulation or exploitation, and should act towards one another in a spirit of brotherhood.
(United Nations General Assembly, 1948)
This amendment was proposed by degrowth scholars who argued that advertising violated the basic human right to think freely, by manipulating people’s perceptions of their needs and spawning belief systems of consumerism (Molinari and Turino, 2018) and materialism (Chia, 2010; Moldes and Ku, 2020). By the mid-2040s, such criticisms of advertising were no longer controversial after decades of social awareness campaigns. The UDHR was formally amended in 2045, followed by the UN’s global ban on online advertising in 2046. The European Union was the first to ratify the ban, and the United States was the last in 2050. I consider the latter event as the end of the war on advertising, even though online advertising continues to exist in unregulated outskirts such as the dark web.
Analysis
The outcome of the war on advertising cannot be taken for granted. I applied Bengston’s (2016) Futures Wheel to map alternative trajectories that could have stemmed from the global ban on offline advertising (see Fig. 1). With reference to some of the potential events identified, this section describes the potential gains and risks for global sustainability in four themes: consumption, tourism, journalism, and culture.
Consumption
The global decline in extractivism (3Ø) aligns with the advertising ban’s goal of mitigating overconsumption. Historically, extractivism has been difficult to eradicate as it is constantly evolving. For instance, removing demand for fossil fuel energy is not enough to end fossil fuel extractivism, as fossil fuel companies have increased plastic production to continue their operations (Gardiner, 2019). Meanwhile, hellish artisanal mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has increased to fulfil the demand for rare metals in the clean energy transition (Zuckerman, 2023). Achieving a true decline in extractivism requires a global, not isolated, reduction in material throughput (2H).
However, alternative marketing strategies such as word-of-mouth (2C) and influencer marketing (2D) may trigger a consumption rebound. Word-of-mouth marketing is primarily responsible for 20-50% of consumer purchases (Bughin, Doogan and Vetvik, 2010), while influencers excel in product promotion due to their followers’ trust and aspiration to emulate their lifestyles (Jin, Muqaddam and Ryu, 2019). In comparison, traditional advertisements are less effective as people are feeling increasingly overloaded and sceptical (Bughin, Doogan and Vetvik, 2010). Future research should explore the potential of consumption rebound from alternative marketing strategies.
Tourism
Decreased tourism (3W) is an ambivalent outcome as its impacts on CO2 emissions and societies can vary depending on the specific context. In general, a lower number of tourist arrivals is beneficial as it reduces CO2 emissions, mainly from transport services (Koçak, Ulucak and Ulucak, 2020). A reduction in tourist arrivals would also spare cities from problems associated with over-tourism in popular destinations. Venice risks losing its status as a world heritage site, as overcrowding and gentrification have caused residents to leave the city in a vicious cycle (Gerard-Sharp, 2017). In 2021, Hawai’i faced congested roads and water shortages in a post-pandemic boom (McDonagh, 2022).
Conversely, decreased tourism may have destabilizing and rebound effects. Tourism belongs to the service sector, which consumes less energy than the industrial and agricultural sectors (Koçak, Ulucak and Ulucak, 2020). A decrease in tourism might lead countries to expand their dirtier sectors, resulting in more CO2 emissions. Furthermore, a loss of tourism poses significant risks to livelihoods, biodiversity, and the sustainable management of natural resources in African countries which rely heavily on tourism revenue (United Nations Sustainable Development Group, 2020). Considering these facts, a sustainable future should be tourism-light but not tourism-free.
Journalism
The loss of advertising revenue for media outlets (1C) may have both positive and negative effects. On the positive side, media outlets are less vulnerable to the influence of corporate and political entities that usually advertise with them, allowing more independent reporting (3H) and diverse perspectives (3I). There are already signs of a promising trend, with print advertising revenue on a decline that digital advertising revenue cannot fully offset (Adgate, 2023). Nonetheless, media outlets are still far from political independence, as conglomerate owners such as Rupert Murdoch remain influential over media narratives (Nahavandi, 2022).
On the negative side, media outlets might have a diminished capacity to combat misinformation (3J) and adequately cover important events (3K). Downsized media outlets may employ fewer editors and fact-checkers, increasing the risk of misinformation and further eroding public trust in mainstream news (Lee, 2019). This could be exacerbated by artificial intelligence: GPT-4 was found to produce more frequent and persuasive misinformation than ChatGPT, its predecessor (Arvanitis, Sadeghi and Brewster, 2023). Moreover, insufficient funding compromises media coverage—in Tanzania, the lack of climate change training for journalists led to poor public awareness and understanding of the problem (Elia, 2019).
Culture
Residents of advertisement-free municipalities may develop a stronger sense of local culture and identity (3T). In Pátzcuaro, Mexico, the deliberate absence of billboards (Harrup, 2008) allows local heritage to flourish without competing for attention, with indigenous costumes and art prominently displayed throughout the community (Buist, 2015). Culture is also essential to building community solidarity and cooperation in addressing collective needs (Brennan, 2023). This understanding underpins UNESCO’s CURE Framework, which prioritizes culture in the reconstruction of cities destroyed by conflict or disaster (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization and World Bank, 2018).
However, the eradication of offline advertising may also have adverse cultural consequences. Advertising campaigns provide a platform for commercial artists to earn a living and refine their skills, as exemplified by the career trajectory of Andy Warhol. The ban would either displace all commercial artists to the Internet or to non-artistic sectors, decimating the art industry in both scenarios. Furthermore, the cultural value of advertisements can be seen in the origins of pop art in the 1950-60s (Encyclopaedia Britannica, 2023). Offline advertisements also foster “dinner table discussion” and embed their slogans in the collective memory of communities; in contrast, individualized online advertisements “atomize” consumers (Vigo, 2019).
Conclusion
This paper contributes to the discussion on the war on advertising in two ways. First, it offers a novel chronology of the war, proposing start and end points in 2007 and 2050. I anticipate that these start and end points will be disputed—some may trace the war back to events before São Paulo, while others may argue that the war is still ongoing. Such disputes are welcome additions to the nascent discussion on the war, which needs more attention so that its lessons may be adapted for other, ongoing movements towards global sustainability. The second contribution is the retrospective analysis using the Futures Wheel, where I explore the potential benefits and risks related to consumption, tourism, journalism, and culture. This analysis uncovers the complex dynamics and tradeoffs within these themes, highlighting the need to address social dependencies on the advertising sector—these include tourism-dependent communities, journalists in developing countries, and commercial artists. Future research is needed to explore the effects of the war on advertising on these groups and identify solutions to support their livelihoods sustainably.
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Ethan Chan 
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